The last issue of TIME magazine had an interesting article on quantum computers — the acknowledged future of computers. IBM is the recognized leader in the development of these machines and a number of IBM employees were interviewed for input to the article. IBM was once synonymous with computers, but over the years kind of got left behind by companies like Apple and Microsoft. During their interviews, they acknowledged that IBM had fallen behind by not seizing the initiative with cloud computing and Artificial Intelligence and said, “It’s no secret that we let things slip by not jumping on the cloud.”
Of course we often don’t see the future clearly. I remember a famous quote made by Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM in 1943 — “I think there is a world marked for maybe five computers.”
But Watson wasn’t alone — I dug up a few more quotes from fairly knowledgeable people, not that many years ago:
“But what … is it good for?” Those words were spoken by an engineer at the Advanced Computing System Division of IBM in 1968 (commenting on the microchip.)
Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, in 1977, said: “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
From an article in a 1949 issue of Popular Mechanics magazine — “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
In 1981, Bill Gates said, “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
And Steve Jobs wrote about attempts he and Steve Wozniak made to interest Atari and Hewlett-Packard in the personal computer that they created….
“So we went to Atari and said, ‘Hey, we’ve got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we’ll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, and we’ll come to work for you.’ And they said ‘No.’ ‘So then we went to Hewlett-Packard and they said, “Hey, we don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet.’”
So I guess even those who should know, don’t always. Someone once said that prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.
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