Since I’ve been writing this blog, there are certain subjects that I’ve deliberately avoided. It seems there is enough classified information floating around in public already….
But the news has been full of stories — and speculation — about the “Chinese spy balloon” flying over the United States.
I’m going to ignore the political and international relations ramifications, but the subject of balloons themselves is interesting and deserving of a blog by me…..
Modern-day “spy” balloons consist of a piece of spying equipment, like a camera, suspended beneath a balloon that floats above a given area, usually carried along by wind currents. Balloons in this day and age usually (possibly) carry radar equipment and and are probably solar powered. The balloons usually operate above 70,000 feet — that’s well above where commercial airlines operate.
If you have an inquisitive mind (like me) you probably wonder why balloons are still used today, what with all the advanced technology, like satellites, readily available. Well, there are probably lots of reasons, but balloons are much cheaper than satellites, much cheaper to launch and if you need to retrieve them — well, that’s easier and cheaper, too.
I remember during the Civil War (no, I wasn’t there) the Union sent soldiers, equipped with binoculars, up in hot air balloons to gather information about Confederate activity further away. They relayed their information back via morse code or a piece of paper tied to a rock. I did some extensive research on balloons and found that the first recorded use of reconnaissance balloons was at the Battle of Fleurus against Austrian and Dutch troops during the French revolutionary wars.
So again, trying to not be political or contribute to worsening international relations, what’s the deal with the Chinese balloon?
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the object is merely a civilian weather observatory blown off course. I guess if you don’t think about that too much, it sounds feasible. But — from what I’ve read, this particular balloon has the ability to maneuver. How much this balloon can maneuver seems important to me — most balloons just go up and down and are at the mercy of the winds. If this balloon can be controlled toward specific destinations, that puts it a step or two above any balloon I’m familiar with. Another thing that doesn’t compute with the Chinese Ministry’s explanation is that this balloon has been “up there” for at least days, maybe months. Weather balloons usually only remain aloft for a number of hours. I also read that the Chinese balloon is roughly the size of three buses — the weather balloons I’ve seen are probably no more than 20 to 30 feet in diameter.
Even though it appears that the Chinese balloon is “controllable,” what if it isn’t? Do wind patterns at different altitudes make it possible to send a balloon over a specific location? At those altitudes, the prevailing winds are west to east. So a balloon launched in China can end up in the United States, but if a balloon is launched in the U.S., it wouldn’t be able to go west (to China.) So it’s possible to choose a specific place to launch a balloon and have a reasonable chance it’ll go over the area of interest. But it’s location certainly can’t be controlled with a lot of accuracy. So what will happen to the Chinese balloon? If it’s not controllable, eventually it’ll come down — somewhere.
There’s no limit to what kind of modern technology you can stick on the bottom of a balloon, whose technology is very old. Just like during the Civil War, the whole point is “higher ground.” Military leaders alway talk about capturing or dominating the higher ground. Higher ground recently has been space, but that’s becoming congested and satellites are vulnerable to attack. So maybe balloons are the high ground of the future.
Anyhow, it’ll be interesting to see how the Chinese Spy Satellite Story plays out. The good news is that it’s keeping the mass shootings out of the headlines for a few days…..
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